Brazil Raises 2026 Trade Surplus Outlook to US$90 Billion

Brazil is heading for a much larger trade surplus in 2026 than the government expected just a few months ago, as exports gather pace across major sectors.

The Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, known in Brazil as MDIC, said on Friday that it now projects a trade surplus of US$90.0 billion for the year. The new estimate is sharply above the US$72.1 billion forecast released in April.

If the projection is met, Brazil would post the second highest surplus in its historical series, behind only the 2023 result. It would also represent a 32.3% increase from 2025, when the country recorded a positive trade balance of US$68.1 billion.

“We observed an acceleration in flows, both exports and imports, which helped lift this projected value,” said Herlon Brandão, director of Foreign Trade Statistics and Studies at MDIC.

Exports Drive the Upgrade

The main reason for the improved outlook is a higher export forecast. MDIC now expects Brazil to sell US$394.4 billion in goods abroad this year, US$30.2 billion more than it projected in April.

Imports are also expected to rise, but by a smaller amount. The ministry raised its import forecast to US$304.4 billion, an increase of US$12.3 billion from the previous estimate.

The figures point to a trade cycle in which demand for Brazilian goods remains strong, particularly commodities and industrial products, while domestic demand also keeps import flows expanding. For businesses watching Brazil’s external accounts, the revision suggests that the country’s trade position remains an important source of resilience.

June Data Shows Broad Momentum

The updated forecast followed another strong monthly reading. In June, Brazil recorded a trade surplus of US$9.758 billion, close to the US$9.9 billion expected by economists surveyed by Reuters.

Exports reached US$36.277 billion in the month, up 24.9% from June 2025. According to the ministry, that was a record for any month in the historical series. Imports totaled US$26.520 billion, an increase of 14.4% from a year earlier.

Export growth was spread across all major sectors, but extractive industries stood out. Shipments from the sector jumped 58.4%, supported by an almost 80% increase in crude oil exports.

That surge came despite a 12% export tax on oil introduced by the government in March. The measure was designed to encourage more supply to remain in Brazil’s domestic market during the military conflict in the Middle East. Higher oil exports could also support government revenue, although the collection of the tax has a two-month delay.

Brandão said prices played a central role in the oil result. “The price of oil, in the year-on-year comparison, June this year against June last year, rose 67.6%. So the price had a big influence on revenue. Volume also grew, 6.8%, which caused the value of oil exports to advance,” he said.

Agricultural exports also increased, rising 18.0% in June, helped by stronger soybean sales. Manufacturing exports grew 14.7%, with higher shipments of meat, fuels and soybean meal.

On the import side, consumer goods posted the strongest increase, up 34.0%. Purchases of fuels rose 11.6%, intermediate goods advanced 10.9%, and capital goods increased 5.7%.

For the first half of the year, Brazil accumulated a trade surplus of US$42.357 billion. That compares with a surplus of US$30.187 billion in the same period of 2025.

What This Means for Brazil Business Club Readers

Brazil’s trade numbers matter well beyond the monthly balance sheet. A larger surplus can influence currency expectations, fiscal revenue, logistics demand, commodity investment and the outlook for exporters in sectors ranging from agribusiness to energy and processed foods.

For companies and investors, the latest MDIC projection reinforces the need to track Brazil not only as a domestic consumption story, but also as one of the world’s major platforms for food, energy and raw materials exports.

If you are evaluating investment, partnerships or market entry in Brazil, Brazil Business Club can help you understand the commercial landscape, identify relevant opportunities and connect with decision makers on the ground. Get in touch with the club to explore how Brazil’s trade momentum could fit into your strategy.